For example, you could be operating on the H1 one hour timeframe, yet the start function would execute many thousands of times per timeframe.
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To start, you setup your timeframes and run your program under a simulation; the tool will simulate each tick knowing that for each unit it should open at certain price, close at a certain price and, reach specified highs and lows. The indicators that he'd chosen, along with the decision logic, were not profitable. As a sample, here are the results of running the program over the M15 window for operations: Note that our balance the blue line finishes below its starting point. Often, systems are un profitable for periods of time based on the market's "mood," which can follow a number of chart patterns: This particular science is known as Parameter Optimization.
I did some rough testing to try and infer the significance of the external parameters on the Return Ratio and came up with something like this: You may think as I did that you should use the Parameter A. Specifically, note the unpredictability of Parameter A: In other words, Parameter A is very likely to over-predict future results since any uncertainty, any shift at all will result in worse performance. But indeed, the future is uncertain! And so the return of Parameter A is also uncertain.
The best choice, in fact, is to rely on unpredictability. Often, a parameter with a lower maximum return but superior predictability less fluctuation will be preferable to a parameter with high return but poor predictability. In turn, you must acknowledge this unpredictability in your Forex predictions.
Think about how you can turn your trading rules into formulas you can use in Excel. I recommend plotting everything out on a big sheet of paper before you sit down at the computer. Create and test your formulas. Once you have an idea of what you want to do and what formulas you need, you can start plugging them into Excel and testing them out. Build automation to buy and sell when your rules are met.
Using the example trading system and template spreadsheets provided on the course, Peter shows how to build in the automation for your buy and sell rules. Doing this on your own with a live account can be a daunting experience but Peter shows live examples of how to do it correctly. When trades are entered, Excel displays their order status and automatically checks for any setup errors.
Build time rules to manage the market open, the market close, and any other time of day criteria you have. Trade with your simulated account while you debug your code. Once your automated trading system is running smoothly and is profitable, move it to real money.
When you go live, it pays to start off cautiously at first. By starting off small you can observe any difference in performance without risking too much capital.
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